The Empty Quarter

The U.S. State Dept released a statement today (as of yet not posted on the Yemen embassy’s website) regarding the decision of Yemen to postpone elections two years. The United States views the delay “with deep concern and disappointment…It is difficult to see how a delay of this duration serves the interests of the Yemeni people or the cause of Yemeni democracy,” it said. In some ways, State set itself up for disappointment by publicly urging a resolution to the conflict without discussing the merits of the disagreement publicly. Snared by the hamstrings of diplomacy I assume. This then is not a surprising statement – nor is it necessarily wrong…in many ways, we are all disappointed.

There are many ways to view the deal, depending on your political persuasion I suppose. One perspective, no doubt preferred by the ruling party, is that the election was postponed in order to guarantee that all parties would be represented and no boycott mustered by the main opposition bloc. Noble reasoning they believe, for they could have proceeded in the face of a boycott and easily swept the elections and overtaken opposition seats. In their view, they are the saviors of Yemen’s multiparty democracy.

If you are opposition-minded then you prefer to see the postponement as a deliberate play by the ruling GPC party to govern for two more years without elections. The GPC has had ample time to respond to the opposition demands for electoral reforms (that many argue were previously agreed upon) but instead refused until only the eve of the election, forcing the necessity of a postponement. Their view is that this is just one more manipulation of the myth of Yemen’s democracy.

In reality, neither view is absolutely correct. The GPC is hardly a synchronous political machine thinking with one strategic mind. In fact, quite the contrary. There have been indications, supported by my sources, that the party found itself under significant strain in the run-up to the deal so that a compromise became necessary just to quell interparty factionalism. The aftermath of the agreement has now exposed some of those fissures, leading to outspoken opposition followed by a PR campaign by party officials attempting to cool heads. It appears now that some within the GPC were willing to go to the mat while others wanted to deal all along.

It is true, the two year break is disappointing when when it is placed against the traditional picture painted of Yemen’s democracy…within the context of the numerous sound bites and laudations of Yemen’s democratic system by foreign officials, reprinted in state media for validation – often minus a qualifying call for improvement. If we believe the propaganda, then yes, the agreement would seem to be a step backward. However, those of us that study Yemen or live its politics undeluded know that Yemen’s democratic experience is still very much embryonic and imperfect. Under the circumstances of reality – a reality where one party has held uninterrupted power for the entirety of the Republic’s existence - a deal that includes real reform as discussed in the past represents positive movement in Yemen’s democratic quickening.

Of course in a perfect world we would prefer the reforms without delay – but building durable democracies is messy work. We shouldn’t pretend that Yemen’s democracy is really that of diplospeak and state media. In the absence of the perfect, a two year delay with meaningful reforms comes in second – as I am sure monitors and advisors were urging behind closed doors. This all hinges on reform deal taking place though. Until an agreement is officially reached, ratified and details publicized, we are left only with a postponed election…and disappointment.

UPDATE: the statement is now posted on the Sana’a embassy website.

UPDATE: Yemen has responded through this article which quotes NDI’s Middle East Director Les Campbell saying that  the postponement is not a barrier to democracy and democtrates the willingness of the ruling party to engage in constructive dialogue with the opposition.

Yemen Parliamentary Elections Postponement

Gordon Duguid

Acting Deputy Department Spokesman,  Office of the Spokesman

Bureau of Public Affairs

Washington, DC

March 3, 2009

The United States views with deep concern and disappointment the decision by Yemen’s ruling and opposition parties to postpone the April 2009 Parliamentary elections for two years. It is difficult to see how a delay of this duration serves the interests of the Yemeni people or the cause of Yemeni democracy. We sincerely hope that the political leadership of Yemen uses this period to cooperate in earnest to reach a consensus on the procedures for the elections that are consistent with the recommendations made by international elections observers in 2006. All parties share the responsibility to ensure that the people of Yemen have the opportunity to choose their representatives in a timely and transparent manner. The United States stands ready to assist in this process.